[കേ.ശാ.സാ.പ] The future of growth

Like most other countries, India has been emulating the path of the
Western countries by developing an oil-based economy. Unfortunately, we
are nearing at a difficult juncture where oil production will start
declining. According to some reports, oil production in a majority of
the major oil producing countries (about 75%) is already declining or
has reached a plateau. The so-called Hubbert's peak in oil production is
supposed to be reached some time between 2010 and 2030 according to
different estimates. There are people who believe that the peak has
already been reached. (Dr. King Hubbert had predicted that oil
production would follow a bell-shaped curve.) Beyond the peak,
production would start falling behind demand and oil prices would soar.
Already, per capita oil production started declining from 1995. The
worst affected would, naturally, be the less wealthy countries, since
the wealthy countries will be able to afford the cost for a longer
duration and they would be the first to eventually have the technology
too. And the worst affected sector could be transportation, since around
60% of oil is being used in this sector (greater in countries like the
United States and less in less developed countries). The alternatives
available include solar energy, ethanol, biodiesel, and so on. Most of
these have several serious drawbacks -- some provide low energy density
(like solar photovoltaic conversion, wind, ocean tide/wave, etc.) or
depend on large areas of cultivable land (like ethanol, biodiesel, etc.)
that could affect the already depleted forests or displace food crops. I
wouldn't be surprised if some countries/regions decide to plant tapioca
for ethanol or sell their tapioca crops for producing ethanol even if
they have food shortage, so that they can get "precious foreign
exchange". The only recourse seems to be nuclear energy. Again, fission
seems to be too dangerous and fusion is still a dream. Even devising a
good fusion reactor does not appear to solve all problems related to the
depletion of oil, since oil is not used for transportation alone.
Moreover, I wonder what kind of aircraft would fly on electric power.
This leaves the entire humankind with some tough problems to solve. Put
this along with already serious problems like global warming and we have
our hands full. But we need to concentrate on ourselves. Have we taken
this question seriously enough? Have we started at least to plan what to
do about this? While we cannot be totally different from the rest of the
country, we can at least plan our own future. We may not be able to
create our own reserves of petroleum or make any impact on the oil
problem, but I think we should start thinking of alternatives; and not
just alternatives to petroleum, but alternative ways of development that
could, hopefully, protect us at least partially from the effects of
decline in the availability of oil. If, by some chance, Hubbert's peak
is delayed beyond the wildest dreams, we would only have prepared
ourselves early. But if it is reached earlier, then it should not take
us totally by surprise. I feel that the latter may come true, especially
because there are reports that many oil producing countries in the OPEC
report lower figures for their oil production so that they can get a
higher quota.

Best

-- 
V. Sasi Kumar
Free Software Foundation of India
http://swatantryam.blogspot.com
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