[കേ.ശാ.സാ.പ] Re: The future of growth

I agree.

We do not think of the future. And I have no idea about what we can do
about Sasi's points.

With the fears of deviating from the topic, let me just put forth another
point.

What about population growth? Our cities are already too crowded, and
ordinary people's life has no value. The trains are overcrowded, the buses
are over crowded, land is getting costlier, and land is getting depleted,
and so is water. And the population is only rising in a geometric
progression(except in some parts). Where do we see ourself and the country
50 years down the line, if things go like this?

This, along with the scenario Sasi has mentioned, puts a very gloomy and
bleak picture in front of us. Assigning all the problems to "class wars"
seems too trivial when seen in this respect...!

Perhaps some future species will refer to human beings just as we refer to
dinosaurs :)

Arun.

On 6/19/07, V Sasi Kumar <sasi.fsf_at_gmail.com> wrote:
>
>
> Like most other countries, India has been emulating the path of the
> Western countries by developing an oil-based economy. Unfortunately, we
> are nearing at a difficult juncture where oil production will start
> declining. According to some reports, oil production in a majority of
> the major oil producing countries (about 75%) is already declining or
> has reached a plateau. The so-called Hubbert's peak in oil production is
> supposed to be reached some time between 2010 and 2030 according to
> different estimates. There are people who believe that the peak has
> already been reached. (Dr. King Hubbert had predicted that oil
> production would follow a bell-shaped curve.) Beyond the peak,
> production would start falling behind demand and oil prices would soar.
> Already, per capita oil production started declining from 1995. The
> worst affected would, naturally, be the less wealthy countries, since
> the wealthy countries will be able to afford the cost for a longer
> duration and they would be the first to eventually have the technology
> too. And the worst affected sector could be transportation, since around
> 60% of oil is being used in this sector (greater in countries like the
> United States and less in less developed countries). The alternatives
> available include solar energy, ethanol, biodiesel, and so on. Most of
> these have several serious drawbacks -- some provide low energy density
> (like solar photovoltaic conversion, wind, ocean tide/wave, etc.) or
> depend on large areas of cultivable land (like ethanol, biodiesel, etc.)
> that could affect the already depleted forests or displace food crops. I
> wouldn't be surprised if some countries/regions decide to plant tapioca
> for ethanol or sell their tapioca crops for producing ethanol even if
> they have food shortage, so that they can get "precious foreign
> exchange". The only recourse seems to be nuclear energy. Again, fission
> seems to be too dangerous and fusion is still a dream. Even devising a
> good fusion reactor does not appear to solve all problems related to the
> depletion of oil, since oil is not used for transportation alone.
> Moreover, I wonder what kind of aircraft would fly on electric power.
> This leaves the entire humankind with some tough problems to solve. Put
> this along with already serious problems like global warming and we have
> our hands full. But we need to concentrate on ourselves. Have we taken
> this question seriously enough? Have we started at least to plan what to
> do about this? While we cannot be totally different from the rest of the
> country, we can at least plan our own future. We may not be able to
> create our own reserves of petroleum or make any impact on the oil
> problem, but I think we should start thinking of alternatives; and not
> just alternatives to petroleum, but alternative ways of development that
> could, hopefully, protect us at least partially from the effects of
> decline in the availability of oil. If, by some chance, Hubbert's peak
> is delayed beyond the wildest dreams, we would only have prepared
> ourselves early. But if it is reached earlier, then it should not take
> us totally by surprise. I feel that the latter may come true, especially
> because there are reports that many oil producing countries in the OPEC
> report lower figures for their oil production so that they can get a
> higher quota.
>
> Best
> --
> V. Sasi Kumar
> Free Software Foundation of India
> http://swatantryam.blogspot.com
>
>
> >
>

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Received on ബ� ജൂണ�� 20 2007 - 11:11:54 IST